The future of global development: 10 takeaways for investors, philanthropists, and policymakers

At a moment when the global development sector is confronting one of its biggest crises in decades, leaders from philanthropy, finance, government, and academia gathered with Stanford’s King Center on Global Development to ask a difficult question: What comes next?

That question was at the center of the Stanford King Center on Global Development’s March 5 “Future of Development” event, which brought together Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman, economist and finance expert Vera Songwe, former Liberian Minister of Public Works Gyude Moore, and former Ambassador and USAID Administrator Mark Green. The discussion was moderated by Peter Henry, The Class of 1984 Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Jendayi Frazer, The Peter J. and Frances Duignan Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Stanford President Jonathan Levin delivered opening remarks. 

The discussion came against the backdrop of massive reductions in foreign aid. King Center Faculty Director Katherine Casey noted that more than $40 billion in official development assistance was cancelled in 2025 alone, with many of the deepest cuts affecting sub-Saharan Africa. 

Yet despite concerns about shrinking aid budgets and growing institutional strain, panelists argued this disruption could also create an opportunity for a long-overdue rethink of how development works.

Rather than relying primarily on traditional donor-recipient models, speakers described a future centered on economic growth, local leadership, investment partnerships, and technological innovation. They emphasized that sustainable progress depends not only on aid, but on building productive economies, stronger institutions, and systems that countries themselves own and direct.

Here are the top 10 takeaways from the conversation.

1. The old aid model is breaking down

Recent cuts to development assistance are threatening decades of progress, panelists warned. 

2025 is “very likely to have been the first year of the 21st century that preventable child mortality went up rather than down,” said Suzman, citing risks to malaria, tuberculosis, HIV treatment, and material and child health programs.

But the panel also acknowledged that frustrations with the traditional donor-recipient model did not begin with recent aid cuts. Too often, speakers argued, aid has been designed externally, delivered through layers of international intermediaries, and disconnected from national priorities on the ground.

The future, they agreed, cannot rely solely on wealthy countries writing checks.

2. Development must move from dependency to self-reliance

One of the clearest themes throughout the event was the importance of recipient-country ownership and longer-term self-reliance.

Ambassador Mark Green said the purpose of development assistance should ultimately be “ending its need to exist.” Countries do not want permanent dependence, he argued, they want the ability to lead their own futures.

Moore emphasized that African governments must also be strategic about which partnerships align with and benefit their national priorities. Songwe similarly argued that development succeeds only when governments and citizens have real agency over priorities and resources. Moore added that countries must organize their economies around long-term growth strategies that eventually allow them to finance healthcare, education, and infrastructure themselves. 

The shift underway is not simply about reducing aid levels. It is about rethinking who sets development priorities, and who controls the institutions behind them.

3. Economic growth, not aid alone, is the real engine of development 

Panelists repeatedly returned to economic growth as the ultimate driver of long-term prosperity.

Moore argued that development has too often been treated as separate “verticals”—health, education, gender, infrastructure—instead of as part of a broader growth strategy focused on building productive economies. “Let's find the binding constraints to economic growth,” he explained. “I'm talking about growth in the productive sector of the economy, growth in the tradable sectors of the economy, agriculture, agri-processing, light manufacturing. That's where we add value to our exports. And that part has been largely neglected.” 

Moore emphasized that many current geopolitical and resource agreements are simply “transactions,” not development strategies. The critical question is whether those transactions create jobs, industries, and long-term prosperity. 

4. Africa is increasingly being viewed as an investment destination, not just an aid recipient

Several speakers challenged outdated narratives that frame Africa primarily as a humanitarian concern rather than an investment opportunity.

“The minute you talk Africa, we talk aid,” Songwe said. “It’s not seen as a business proposition.”

That perception, speakers argued, overlooks both demographic and economic reality. Half of Africa is now middle income, and the continent’s growing workforce and consumer markets are increasingly important to global  supply chains and future economic growth.’

Moore pointed to growing global demand for African critical minerals, but stressed that African governments increasingly want to move beyond simply exporting raw materials. Countries are pushing for local processing, refining, and industrialization so that more value creation stays on the continent.

For investors, the message was clear: Africa’s future role in the global economy may center as much on industrialization as on resource extraction.

5. The global financial system still disadvantages African economies

One of the event’s sharpest critiques focused on the structure of the international financial system itself.

Songwe argued that global banking and regulatory systems systematically make capital more expensive for African countries, even when projects are fundamentally sound. 

She explained that African debt often carries disproportionately high capital charges and risk premiums under international banking rules, making investment less attractive and borrowing more expensive. As a result, African savings frequently flow into U.S. Treasury securities instead of staying on the continent to finance domestic growth.

“So the poor are financing the rich,” she said. “That is the interesting travesty of the financial architecture that we live in today.”  

Songwe’s point underscored a broader theme of the discussion: Debates about aid levels alone may overlook deeper structural barriers embedded in the rules governing global capital flows.

6. Local manufacturing and regional capacity will matter more than ever

Speakers highlighted growing momentum around building local production capacity across Africa.

Suzman pointed to a Gates-supported syringe manufacturing facility in Kenya that now produces much of Africa’s vaccine syringe supply. What began as a pandemic-era emergency investment has become a self-sustaining regional manufacturing platform.

Panelists argued that philanthropy can play a catalytic role by providing early-stage risk capital that helps launch private-sector manufacturing while also supporting public-sector procurement systems that create stable demand. These types of investments help address what many countries are striving to build—local capacity in sectors ranging from healthcare and agriculture to pharmaceuticals, energy, and technology.

For investors, this creates opportunities not just in extraction or consumption, but in building industrial ecosystems.

7. AI could become one of the most powerful development tools in decades

Artificial intelligence emerged as one of the most hopeful themes of the conversation.

Suzman described AI as both a profound risk and a potentially transformative force for global development. The Gates Foundation is already experimenting with AI-supported healthcare diagnostics, education systems, and agricultural tools. Examples discussed included: AI-assisted ultrasound tools for maternal healthcare in rural settings; educational platforms that help teachers identify learning gaps in overcrowded classrooms; agricultural apps that provide weather forecasting, soil analysis, and crop recommendations to smallholder farmers. 

But panelists emphasized that access and affordability will be critical. Suzman noted that Gates-backed partnerships require that technologies developed with philanthropic funding be made broadly accessible rather than locked behind proprietary pricing.

8. Philanthropy is becoming a laboratory for supporting innovation

The discussion also highlighted a changing role for major philanthropies.

Rather than simply filling funding gaps, philanthropy is increasingly supporting testing grounds for new ideas and emerging technologies that governments and traditional funders are unwilling or unable to support. 

Suzman noted that the Gates Foundation plans to spend $200 billion before closing in 2045, with a focus on ending preventable maternal and child deaths, combating infectious diseases, and reducing poverty.

Suzman emphasized that philanthropy cannot replace governments or multilateral institutions. Instead, philanthropy’s comparative advantage lies in taking risks others cannot take,  particularly during periods of political uncertainty, when governments often become more risk-averse.

Panelists argued that flexibility and willingness to absorb risk allows philanthropic organizations to experiment with new approaches and support innovations that private investors and public institutions may avoid.

9. Development is deeply tied to geopolitics 

The discussion underscored how closely global development is now intertwined with geopolitical competition, economic security, and demographic change. 

Development partnerships are increasingly evaluated not only by the amount of aid provided, but by their geopolitical implications and impacts on economic security, political stability, migration, supply chains, and global influence. 

“Today, Africa is coupled with the world,” said Songwe. “If there's an oil shock, it hurts Africa. If there is a financial crisis, it hurts Africa. To design any kind of global regulation without asking the question, 'how does it impact Africa', does not work anymore.”

The urgency of that interconnectedness was especially evident in discussions about jobs and demographic growth, given Africa’s young and rapidly expanding workforce.

“Next year, one million Tanzanians will enter the workforce,” said Green. “I promise you there are not a million new, meaningful jobs being created. We would be very smart to be looking for ways to invest and help create those jobs.” 

“In so many ways,” he added, “the future flows through Africa.”

10. Despite the aid crisis, there is still reason for optimism

Although the discussion began with funding cuts and institutional upheaval, the overall tone was not pessimistic.

Speakers pointed to extraordinary progress achieved over the last 25 years: Child mortality has fallen dramatically, millions of lives have been saved through vaccines and HIV treatment, and extreme poverty declined across many countries. 

“We truly think we can get to a world where no mother and child dies of a preventable disease and that anyone with a deadly infectious disease can manage it.” Suzman said.

The challenge now, panelists argued, is whether governments, philanthropists, investors, and local leaders can build a new development paradigm suited for the next 25 years. A new approach, according to the panel, will rely less on centralized aid systems and more on local ownership, technological innovation, blended finance, private-sector partnerships for productive investments, and long-term economic growth.

The conversation’s core message was ultimately straightforward: The future of development will not be built for countries. It will be built with them, and by them.